Joint Webinar Series: Topics at the nexus of climate change, fisheries, and blue foods

Presentation 1: Developing a North Pacific Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (NOMEME) to support conservation and resilient fisheries management under climate change There is an urgent need to understand how climate change affects marine systems and species in the North Pacific, and coordinate efforts across nations particularly for transboundary or shifting species, to guide mitigation efforts and sustain fish populations. Considerable uncertainty however exists in climate projections, and in our knowledge of processes and impacts. BECI is a relatively new project that aims to support ocean and coastal management under increasing climate variability and uncertainty, through advanced transboundary ocean and climate change science. We are developing a North Pacific Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (NOMEME) that combines multiple models linked to climate drivers across the region, to evaluate short- and long-term impacts of combined climate change and fisheries management on key functional groups including small pelagics and forage fish, large demersal fish, and salmonids. Using multi-model inference is the best way to account for climate uncertainty and improve reliability of predictions. This collaborative effort brings together modellers, researchers, and practitioners to guide objectives and methods that can support conservation and fisheries decisions. We are in the process of developing a NOMEME protocol that includes a thorough review and skill assessment of existing models in the region, development of appropriate future management scenarios according to regional needs and values, and new simulations to fill knowledge gaps for fisheries management and conservation. This project is linked to global initiatives like Fish-MIP and NOAA’s Climate Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI). The results can support both tactical management decisions (e.g., fisheries risk buffers and biomass reference points) and strategic decisions for fisheries and conservation using different climate forecast scenarios. Through this and other collaborative initiatives, BECI aims to support advanced, sciencebased decisions to address climate change in the North Pacific.